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Recently, several Chinese producers announced that they have officially filed a request to initiate an anti-dumping investigation on pork imported from the European Union (EU). This is the latest move in the US-China trade tensions threatening the global economy.
Last month, Europe initiated an anti-dumping investigation on Chinese steel coils, while the United States launched a trade remedy investigation on solar panels from Southeast Asian countries, accusing them of acting as transit hubs for China to avoid US trade remedy duties.
Additionally, the US increased tariffs from 25% to 100% on electric vehicles, from 7.5% to 25% on lithium batteries for electric vehicles, from 25% to 50% on photovoltaic components used to make solar panels, and from 0% to 25% on certain critical minerals from China. The import tariff on some steel and aluminum products will be 25%.
The US also maintained duties on $300 billion worth of Chinese products imposed in 2018 under former President Donald Trump. In response, China expressed dissatisfaction with the US decision and announced equivalent countermeasures, accusing the US of politicizing economic decisions and stating it would “take all necessary measures to protect its rights and interests.” This includes banning certain US businesses from engaging in import-export activities related to China, including the sale of arms to Taiwan and prohibiting new investments in China.
One of China’s countermeasures is investigating the anti-dumping of POM plastic from the EU and the US, and the latest move is the potential anti-dumping investigation on imported pork from the EU (currently in the request reception phase, not officially initiated).
Chinese customs data shows that the import value of pork, including offal, in 2023 reached $6 billion, with imports from the EU accounting for more than half. Pork parts such as feet, ears, and offal are not favored in the EU but are highly popular among Chinese consumers, creating a valuable market for the EU.
Notably, most of the pork products imported from the EU to China are not lean meat, as many might think, but parts less consumed in the West, such as offal, pig trotters, ears, and heads.
If the investigation proceeds, it is expected that trade tensions between China and Western countries will escalate to levels comparable to 2018, causing damage to both sides. However, it could benefit some surrounding countries like Vietnam.
This is because when trade quotas between major partners decrease, to maintain the supply-demand balance in the domestic market, these countries will need to import goods from other nations. For example, if EU pork offal is investigated, China will need to import more from other countries with excess animal offal.
Some leading pork suppliers to China in 2023 included Spain, Brazil, and the United States. Other major suppliers are France, Denmark, and the Netherlands.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that Chinese companies have the right to file requests for countervailing and anti-dumping investigations on milk and pork imported from the EU. Chinese media also reported that besides pork, Chinese companies plan to request a countervailing investigation on milk imported from the EU, which could significantly impact suppliers from the Netherlands, France, and Germany.
The European Commission views China’s move to investigate pork and milk as a politically motivated retaliatory measure rather than economic competition.
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