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(Published on VIR) Starting March 4, all aluminium and steel imports into the US will be subject to a 25 per cent tariff. This sudden change presents significant challenges for Vietnamese exporters. As Vietnam ranks fourth among the largest steel suppliers to the US, this policy shift could have severe direct and indirect consequences for the country’s steel and aluminium.
The US administration states that the law’s extensive authority allows the president to rapidly implement tariffs with minimal investigation or oversight to react immediately to imminent threats. With few procedural limits around the use of Emergency Economic Powers Act, in place since 1977, President Donald Trump can declare, in this case, a tariff increase as part of a national emergency.
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| Doan Vu Hoai Nam, Senior Associate, ASL LAW |
In addition, the first Trump administration used Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act as a basis to impose tariffs on such products, many of which remain in place today. Section 232 authorises tariffs after an investigation by the US Department of Commerce finds that imports threaten to impair national security.
According to data from the former General Department of Customs, in 2024, Vietnam exported $112.5 billion to the US and imported $10.5 billion. In January, the former General Statistics Office data showed that total trade turnover between Vietnam and the US reached $11.1 billion, remaining relatively unchanged from the same period last year. This stability suggests that the proportion of export-import turnover between the two countries has been maintained.
Regarding Vietnam’s steel exports to the states, US Customs data indicated that in 2024, Vietnam exported approximately $983 million worth of steel and steel products to the US market. For aluminium products, United States Customs data also revealed that in 2024, Vietnam exported approximately $479 million worth of aluminium and aluminium products to the US market.
Due to the large volume of steel and aluminium exports to the US, Vietnamese manufacturing-exporting businesses are frequently subjected to US trade remedy investigations, as indicated by the 10 per cent and 25 per cent tariffs currently imposed on aluminium and steel products under Section 232, which the US has applied since 2018 to most countries.
To date, the US has initiated more than 34 trade remedy investigations into Vietnam’s steel exports, accounting for over half of all trade remedy cases involving Vietnam. For aluminium products, there have been two investigation cases.
According to recent statistics compiled by the American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam, 81 per cent of American businesses operating in the country are concerned about the possibility of US tariffs being imposed under the second Trump administration.
Additionally, 92 per cent of US manufacturers in Vietnam expressed concerns that tariffs could disrupt supply chains and negatively impact competitiveness. Over 85 per cent of surveyed businesses believe tariffs will reduce trade volume, disrupt long-term partnerships, and negatively affect Vietnam’s economy.
These concerns are well-founded given that President Trump has explicitly reaffirmed his “America First” policy for his second term. However, whether to view this matter as a risk or an opportunity remains up to each Vietnamese business.
Firstly, with the increase in tariffs, Vietnamese businesses will have to compete with little to no advantages over steel and aluminium manufacturers from other countries. This double-edged sword may reduce profits in the short term but also presents an opportunity to streamline operations.
Secondly, the US may tighten inspections on product origins and verify the legality of raw materials. If businesses fail to provide sufficient proof of lawful sourcing, they risk being subjected to additional tariffs, specifically anti-circumvention duties on goods suspected of originating from China, which remains in trade tension with the US.
On the other hand, given Vietnam’s history with US trade remedy investigations, including anti-dumping, anti-subsidy, and anti-circumvention cases, Vietnamese businesses should already be familiar with such tariff increases. This prior experience provides an advantage over businesses from other countries.
Thirdly, contract and supply chain issues pose further challenges. US partners may suspend or cancel orders due to regulatory concerns. In extreme cases, measures similar to US-issued sanctions or retaliatory actions from other trade partners may be applied. These could disrupt supply chains and force businesses to seek alternative markets.
If higher-than-expected tariffs are imposed, disputes over contract terms could arise, leading to financial and legal consequences for Vietnamese exporters. This is why businesses must work closely with legal counsel throughout their operations to mitigate risks.
Despite the difficulties and uncertainties going forward, confidence in the Vietnamese market remains strong. We found that 94 per cent of businesses, and 98 per cent of manufacturers specifically, still believe in Vietnam’s potential due to its developed infrastructure, skilled workforce, and strategic location.
Vietnam still has substantial opportunities to continue exporting. US steel and aluminium manufacturers have yet to fully meet domestic demand, creating room for outstanding businesses to step in. However, profit margins for exporters may decline in the near future.
Nonetheless, after an initial period of adjustment and adaptation, Vietnamese businesses will gain deeper access to the US supply chain, especially as products increasingly meet origin requirements while maintaining high-quality and competitive pricing.
ASL Law is a leading full-service and independent Vietnamese law firm made up of experienced and talented lawyers. ASL Law is ranked as the top tier Law Firm in Vietnam by Legal500, Asia Law, WTR, and Asia Business Law Journal. Based in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, the firm’s main purpose is to provide the most practical, efficient and lawful advice to its domestic and international clients. If we can be of assistance, please email to [email protected].
ASL LAW is the top-tier Vietnam law firm for Anti-dumping & countervailing. If you need any advice, please contact us for further information or collaboration.
